2017考研趣味閱讀：巴菲特今年操盤失手

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經歷了2015年上半年的牛市以后，從2015下半年至今故股市都是出于熊市的狀態，雖然上半年很多人賺了一大筆，但在下半年很多人都損失慘重。

Investment guru Warren Buffett is heading for hisworst year relative to the rest of the US stockmarket since 2009, with shares in his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway down 11.5 per centwith two more trading days to go.

投資大師沃倫巴菲特(Warren Buffett)即將告別自2009年以來他相對于美國股市大盤表現最糟糕的一年，今年只剩下兩個交易日之際，他旗下的企業集團伯克希爾哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)今年股價下跌11.5%。

The underperformance comes in Mr Buffett’s golden anniversary year at the helm, when he toldinvestors for the first time that they should judge his record on Berkshire’s share price, ratherthan just the book value of the company — his preferred yardstick for decades.

此次跑輸大盤正值巴菲特掌舵的黃金周年，當年他首次告訴投資者，他們應當根據伯克希爾的股價(而不只是該公司的賬面價值)來評判他的投資記錄，這也是他持續幾十年的首選尺度。

Mr Buffett urged them to make that judgment based on the long term, rather than on a singleyear, reflecting investor Benjamin Graham’s view that the stock market may be a “weighingmachine” in the long run, but in the short term it is a “voting machine”.

巴菲特敦促他們基于長期(而不是某一年的)表現作出評判，反映了投資者本杰明格雷厄姆(BenjaminGraham)的觀點：長遠而言股市也許是“稱重機”，但在短期內它是“投票機”。

But in 2015, the market has voted negatively on Berkshire’s prospects for weathering thedecline in commodities prices, according to Jim Shanahan, analyst at Edward Jones.

但是，據愛德華瓊斯(Edward Jones)分析師吉姆餠納漢(Jim Shanahan)表示，2015年期間，市場對伯克希爾駕馭大宗商品價格下降的前景投下了不信任票。

Although Berkshire has no oil and gas subsidiaries, its railway business transports oil, coal andagricultural products, and its manufacturing arm sells products to the shrinking oil industry. “They are impacted by the weak resources sector and commodity prices in general,” said MrShanahan.

盡管伯克希爾沒有油氣業務子公司，但其鐵路業務部門運輸石油、煤炭和農產品，其制造部門向不斷縮水的石油行業銷售產品。“它們受到資源行業不景氣以及大宗商品價格普遍低迷的影響，”沙納漢表示。

Berkshire has also been hit by big declines in two of its largest stock market investments:American Express, down 25 per cent this year, and IBM, down 13 per cent.

伯克希爾公司還受到兩大重倉股大幅下跌的打擊：美國運通(American Express)今年下跌25%，而IBM今年下跌13%。

But net earnings rose 18 per cent to $18.6bn in the first nine months of the year, and bookvalue was up 3.3 per cent.

但伯克希爾今年前9個月凈利潤增長18%，至186億美元，賬面價值增長3.3%。

The fall in Berkshire shares comes against a 3 per cent return from the S&P 500, includingdividends. It is only the 11th negative year since Mr Buffett took control in 1965, and theworst underperformance relative to the S&P 500 since 2009.

伯克希爾股價下跌之際，標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)今年實現3%的回報率(包括股息)。這是自1965年巴菲特掌舵以來第11個股價下跌的年份，也是自2009年以來相對于標普500表現最糟糕的一年。