2017考研趣味閱讀："石頭、剪刀、布"出啥能贏?

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Many people formulate a strategy for the game rock, paper, scissors, which they believe is sure to beat the competition.

玩“石頭、剪刀、布”的時(shí)候，許多人都有一套自己的策略，他們相信那就是自己制勝的訣竅。

But a new study reveals players actually don't stick to a plan, rather they become irrational when making their next move - including using the same item that was once a winner.

不過一項(xiàng)新研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，玩家其實(shí)并不遵循所謂的“策略”，相反，他們常常不理智，比如會(huì)傾向贏了后出上一個(gè)手勢(shì)。

Researchers suggest that if you want to be victorious, choose paper because most people tend to go for rock.

研究表明，如果你想在游戲中取得勝利，那就要出“布”，因?yàn)榇蠖鄶?shù)人都傾向于出“石頭”。

WHAT DID THE STUDY FIND?

“石頭、剪刀、布”里的奧秘

Even if participants had a set plan for their next move, their emotions would make the act irrational.

即使玩家已經(jīng)打算好下一個(gè)要出什么手勢(shì)，情緒也會(huì)導(dǎo)致他們的最終決定不理智。

Each of the three items carries equal status, which means the only rational method is to use each one an equal number of times – any other approach is irrational, said researchers.

研究員稱，這三種手勢(shì)贏的概率相同，因此唯一理智的玩法就是出每種手勢(shì)的次數(shù)相同，其他的任何玩法都是不理智的。

The study revealed that participants followed a 'win-stay, lose-shift' strategy in how they played the game, which means when they won a round they kept repeating their winning item.

研究表示，玩家遵循著“贏了就出上個(gè)手勢(shì)，輸了再換其他手勢(shì)”的策略，因此一旦贏了一局，之后就總是重復(fù)之前的手勢(shì)。

It wasn't until they lost did they change their action.

只要一直沒輸，他們就不會(huì)換其他的手勢(shì)。

Although the optimal strategy is to pick one of the three equally and at random, most people tended to over use rock.

因此，最佳的游戲策略是在這個(gè)三個(gè)手勢(shì)中隨機(jī)出任一個(gè)，且每種手勢(shì)出的概率相等。不過多數(shù)人總會(huì)傾向于出“石頭”。

'Rock, paper, scissors (RPS) is a game where predictions of human rational decision-making can be compared with actual performance,' reads the study published in the journal Scientific Reports.

《科學(xué)報(bào)告》雜志中寫道：在“剪刀、石頭、布”的游戲里，人們以為自己能做出理性的決策，但實(shí)際的表現(xiàn)卻大相徑庭。

'Playing a computerized opponent adopting a mixed-strategy equilibrium, participants revealed a non-significant tendency to over-select rock.'

“計(jì)算機(jī)玩家采取了平衡策略，即出每種手勢(shì)的概率相等，但真實(shí)玩家卻略微表現(xiàn)出更愛出‘石頭’的傾向。”

'It's worrying that people tended to make more irrational decisions following a loss,' said Dr. Ben Dyson, lecturer in Psychology at the University of Sussex.

英國(guó)薩塞克斯大學(xué)心理學(xué)教授本•戴森說道：“人們?cè)诮?jīng)歷失敗后會(huì)傾向于做出不理智的決定，這點(diǎn)實(shí)在令人擔(dān)憂。“

'This could have more serious implications in higher-stake scenarios where people are competing to out maneuver one another – in economics or politics, for example.'

“在從事其他更高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性的事務(wù)時(shí)，這種傾向可能帶來嚴(yán)重后果，比如說當(dāng)人們需要在經(jīng)濟(jì)或政治領(lǐng)域打敗對(duì)手時(shí)。”

These irrational decisions are driven by an emotional reaction to a negative outcome and leaves people vulnerable to a smart opponent.'

“不理智的決定源于人們面對(duì)負(fù)面結(jié)果時(shí)的情緒，這樣的情緒會(huì)使人面對(duì)精明的對(duì)手時(shí)處于劣勢(shì)。”

'Emotion might have some distracting effect that deteriorates the quality of our thought.

“情緒可能會(huì)分散注意力，降低思考質(zhì)量。”

'If we can learn to separate emotion from outcome, like successful Poker players, we might be able to mitigate this risk.'

“如果我們學(xué)會(huì)分開情緒和輸贏結(jié)果，像成功的撲克玩家那樣，或許能減少這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”